Weighted consensus across 1 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
ALAVÉS
Draw
GETAFE
DraftKings
40%
32%
28%
Wtd. Average
40%
32%
28%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 1 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
21%
2–1
15%
2–0
13%
1–0
13%
0–0
13%
1–2
10%
3–1
8%
2–2
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.