Weighted consensus across 5 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
ANGERS
Draw
LILLE
Betfair Exchange sharp
49%
19%
31%
Smarkets sharp
18%
25%
56%
FanDuel
18%
25%
58%
BetMGM
18%
26%
57%
Wtd. Average
35%
22%
43%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 5 books · live
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Correct Score
2–2
16%
3–2
14%
2–3
13%
2–1
12%
3–3
12%
1–2
11%
3–1
11%
1–1
11%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.