Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
ARGENTIN
Draw
EGYPT
Betfair Exchange sharp
72%
19%
9%
Smarkets sharp
71%
19%
9%
Matchbook sharp
72%
19%
9%
Pinnacle
70%
20%
10%
DraftKings
70%
20%
10%
FanDuel
70%
20%
9%
Wtd. Average
71%
19%
9%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live
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Correct Score
3–0
16%
2–0
15%
3–1
14%
2–1
13%
4–0
12%
4–1
11%
1–1
10%
1–0
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.