Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
ARSENAL
Draw
CITY
Betfair Exchange sharp
83%
12%
5%
Smarkets sharp
76%
16%
7%
Pinnacle
82%
12%
6%
DraftKings
81%
12%
6%
FanDuel
81%
13%
5%
BetMGM
80%
13%
6%
Wtd. Average
81%
13%
6%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
4–0
15%
3–0
15%
4–1
13%
3–1
13%
5–0
12%
2–0
11%
5–1
11%
2–1
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.