Weighted consensus across 1 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
ROMA
Draw
FIORENTI
Pinnacle
62%
23%
16%
Wtd. Average
62%
23%
16%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 1 books · live
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Correct Score
2–1
16%
3–1
16%
2–0
13%
3–0
13%
1–1
12%
4–1
12%
4–0
10%
2–2
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.