Weighted consensus across 1 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
BC
Draw
SASSUOLO
Pinnacle
62%
22%
17%
Wtd. Average
62%
22%
17%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 1 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
16%
2–1
15%
4–1
12%
3–0
12%
2–0
12%
1–1
12%
3–2
11%
2–2
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.