Weighted consensus across 6 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
AUGSBURG
Draw
04
Betfair Exchange sharp
45%
25%
30%
Smarkets sharp
43%
26%
30%
Pinnacle
46%
26%
29%
DraftKings
44%
26%
30%
FanDuel
45%
25%
30%
Wtd. Average
45%
25%
30%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 6 books · live
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Correct Score
2–1
16%
1–1
16%
2–2
14%
3–1
14%
3–2
11%
1–2
11%
2–0
10%
4–1
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.