Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
AUSTRALI
Draw
EGYPT
Betfair Exchange sharp
28%
33%
38%
Smarkets sharp
28%
33%
38%
Matchbook sharp
28%
33%
38%
Pinnacle
28%
33%
39%
DraftKings
29%
33%
38%
FanDuel
29%
33%
38%
Wtd. Average
28%
33%
38%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
22%
0–0
14%
1–2
12%
2–1
12%
0–1
11%
1–0
11%
0–2
9%
2–0
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.