Weighted consensus across 3 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
BARCELON
Draw
BILBAO
Pinnacle
67%
19%
14%
DraftKings
66%
19%
14%
Wtd. Average
67%
19%
14%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 3 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
16%
4–1
14%
2–1
14%
3–0
12%
4–0
11%
3–2
11%
2–0
11%
5–1
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.