Weighted consensus across 6 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
MUNICH
Draw
STUTTGAR
Smarkets sharp
72%
16%
13%
Pinnacle
73%
14%
12%
DraftKings
72%
15%
13%
FanDuel
73%
15%
11%
BetMGM
72%
15%
13%
Wtd. Average
73%
15%
12%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 6 books · live
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Correct Score
4–1
16%
3–1
15%
5–1
14%
4–2
12%
3–2
12%
5–2
11%
2–1
10%
4–0
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.