Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FC
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
68%
19%
13%
Matchbook sharp
68%
19%
13%
Pinnacle
69%
18%
13%
DraftKings
68%
19%
13%
FanDuel
70%
17%
13%
William Hill
66%
20%
14%
Wtd. Average
68%
19%
13%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
16%
4–1
14%
2–1
14%
3–0
12%
4–0
11%
3–2
11%
2–0
11%
5–1
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.