Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
DORTMUND
Draw
SV
Betfair Exchange sharp
72%
17%
10%
Smarkets sharp
68%
19%
13%
Pinnacle
71%
17%
12%
DraftKings
70%
18%
12%
FanDuel
72%
17%
11%
BetMGM
71%
17%
12%
Wtd. Average
71%
17%
11%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
16%
4–1
15%
3–0
13%
2–1
13%
4–0
12%
2–0
11%
5–1
11%
3–2
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.