Who is the favourite in Brazil vs Japan?

Betting exchange markets make Brazil the 54% favourite to win Brazil vs Japan. Brazil win probability is 54%, Draw is 27%, Japan win is 19%.

What are the odds for Brazil vs Japan?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: Brazil 54% | Draw 27% | Japan 19%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Home Brazil

54% Win
Prob

27% Draw

Away Japan

19% Win
Prob

Round of 32

Brazil vs Japan

◯Mon 29 Jun 2026◯1:00 AM SGT · Kickoff◯NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas

What does the crowd think?

Market Consensus

Brazil Win 54%

Draw 27%

Japan Win 19%

Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	BRAZIL	Draw	JAPAN
Betfair Exchange sharp	54%	28%	18%
Smarkets sharp	56%	25%	19%
Matchbook sharp	54%	28%	19%
Pinnacle	53%	27%	20%
DraftKings	53%	27%	20%
FanDuel	54%	27%	19%
Wtd. Average	54%	27%	19%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live

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Correct Score

1–1

17%

2–1

16%

2–0

15%

3–1

13%

3–0

12%

1–0

10%

2–2

0–0

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.