Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
BRENTFOR
Draw
HOTSPUR
Betfair Exchange sharp
41%
26%
34%
Smarkets sharp
41%
26%
33%
Pinnacle
42%
25%
33%
DraftKings
42%
26%
32%
FanDuel
41%
25%
34%
BetMGM
42%
26%
31%
Wtd. Average
41%
26%
33%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
16%
2–1
16%
2–2
14%
3–1
13%
1–2
12%
3–2
11%
2–0
9%
2–3
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.