Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
VIGO
Draw
OSASUNA
Betfair Exchange sharp
47%
29%
24%
Smarkets sharp
47%
29%
24%
Pinnacle
47%
27%
26%
DraftKings
46%
27%
26%
FanDuel
47%
28%
25%
BetMGM
46%
29%
25%
Wtd. Average
47%
29%
25%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
18%
2–1
17%
2–0
13%
3–1
12%
2–2
11%
1–2
10%
3–0
9%
1–0
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.