Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FIRE
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
34%
25%
41%
Smarkets sharp
34%
25%
41%
Matchbook sharp
34%
25%
41%
Pinnacle
34%
25%
41%
DraftKings
35%
25%
40%
FanDuel
35%
24%
41%
Wtd. Average
34%
25%
41%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
15%
2–2
15%
2–1
14%
1–2
14%
3–2
11%
3–1
11%
2–3
10%
1–3
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.