Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
SC
Draw
FC
Smarkets sharp
48%
26%
26%
Pinnacle
48%
26%
26%
DraftKings
49%
26%
25%
FanDuel
51%
24%
25%
BetMGM
49%
25%
26%
William Hill
48%
26%
26%
Wtd. Average
49%
26%
26%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
2–1
17%
1–1
16%
3–1
14%
2–2
13%
2–0
11%
3–2
11%
1–2
10%
3–0
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.