Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
CITIZEN
Draw
FC
Smarkets sharp
39%
29%
33%
Pinnacle
39%
28%
34%
DraftKings
39%
28%
34%
BetMGM
40%
27%
33%
William Hill
38%
28%
33%
Wtd. Average
39%
28%
33%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
19%
2–1
16%
2–2
14%
1–2
13%
3–1
11%
2–0
10%
3–2
9%
2–3
7%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.