Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
YINGBO
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
44%
23%
33%
Pinnacle
44%
25%
32%
DraftKings
43%
25%
32%
FanDuel
43%
24%
33%
William Hill
42%
26%
31%
Wtd. Average
44%
24%
33%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
Loading form…
Correct Score
2–1
16%
2–2
15%
1–1
14%
3–1
14%
3–2
13%
1–2
11%
2–3
9%
4–1
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.