Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
ELVERSBE
Draw
LEVERKUS
Betfair Exchange sharp
18%
21%
61%
Smarkets sharp
20%
22%
58%
Pinnacle
19%
21%
61%
DraftKings
19%
21%
60%
FanDuel
17%
20%
62%
BetMGM
18%
22%
60%
Wtd. Average
18%
21%
60%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–2
16%
1–1
14%
1–3
14%
2–2
14%
2–3
12%
2–1
10%
0–2
10%
1–4
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.