Who is the favourite in England vs Argentina?

Betting exchange markets make England the 35% favourite to win England vs Argentina. England win probability is 35%, Draw is 33%, Argentina win is 32%.

What are the odds for England vs Argentina?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: England 35% | Draw 33% | Argentina 32%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Home England

35% Win
Prob

33% Draw

Away Argentina

32% Win
Prob

Semifinal

England vs Argentina

◯Wed 15 Jul 2026◯3:00 AM SGT · Kickoff◯Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia

Market Consensus

England Win 35%

Draw 33%

Argentina Win 32%

Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	ENGLAND	Draw	ARGENTIN
Betfair Exchange sharp	35%	33%	32%
Smarkets sharp	35%	33%	32%
Matchbook sharp	35%	34%	32%
Pinnacle	35%	34%	32%
DraftKings	35%	33%	32%
FanDuel	35%	33%	32%
Wtd. Average	35%	33%	32%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live

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Correct Score

1–1

21%

2–1

14%

0–0

13%

1–0

12%

2–0

12%

1–2

11%

2–2

0–1

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.

What does the crowd think?