Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
ENGLAND
Draw
CONGO
Betfair Exchange sharp
77%
17%
6%
Smarkets sharp
77%
17%
6%
Matchbook sharp
77%
17%
6%
Pinnacle
75%
17%
8%
DraftKings
75%
17%
8%
FanDuel
76%
17%
6%
Wtd. Average
76%
17%
7%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live
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Correct Score
3–0
17%
2–0
15%
4–0
14%
3–1
13%
2–1
12%
4–1
11%
5–0
10%
1–1
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.