Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
ESPANYOL
Draw
LEVANTE
Betfair Exchange sharp
48%
29%
24%
Smarkets sharp
46%
28%
26%
Pinnacle
46%
29%
25%
DraftKings
47%
29%
25%
FanDuel
47%
28%
25%
BetMGM
47%
29%
24%
Wtd. Average
47%
29%
25%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
19%
2–1
17%
2–0
14%
3–1
11%
1–0
10%
2–2
10%
1–2
10%
3–0
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.