Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
EVERTON
Draw
PALACE
Betfair Exchange sharp
44%
28%
28%
Smarkets sharp
44%
27%
29%
Pinnacle
44%
28%
28%
DraftKings
44%
28%
29%
FanDuel
45%
26%
29%
BetMGM
45%
27%
29%
Wtd. Average
44%
28%
28%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
18%
2–1
17%
3–1
12%
2–2
12%
2–0
12%
1–2
11%
3–2
9%
3–0
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.