Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
ANYANG
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
58%
27%
15%
Smarkets sharp
51%
24%
25%
Pinnacle
58%
25%
16%
DraftKings
58%
25%
17%
BetMGM
58%
24%
18%
William Hill
57%
26%
17%
Wtd. Average
57%
26%
18%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
2–1
16%
1–1
16%
2–0
15%
3–1
14%
3–0
12%
1–0
10%
2–2
9%
4–1
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.