Weighted consensus across 6 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
CINCINNA
Draw
FC
Smarkets sharp
28%
24%
49%
FanDuel
28%
21%
51%
BetMGM
28%
23%
49%
William Hill
27%
24%
49%
Wtd. Average
28%
23%
49%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 6 books · live
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Correct Score
2–2
15%
1–2
14%
1–1
13%
2–3
13%
2–1
12%
1–3
12%
3–2
11%
3–3
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.