Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
KÖLN
Draw
HOFFENHE
Betfair Exchange sharp
32%
24%
43%
Smarkets sharp
31%
27%
42%
Pinnacle
31%
26%
43%
DraftKings
31%
26%
43%
FanDuel
33%
25%
43%
BetMGM
32%
25%
43%
Wtd. Average
32%
25%
43%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
16%
2–2
15%
1–2
14%
2–1
14%
2–3
10%
3–2
10%
1–3
10%
3–1
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.