Who is the favourite in France vs Spain?

Betting exchange markets make Spain the 84% favourite to win France vs Spain. France win probability is 4%, Draw is 12%, Spain win is 84%.

What are the odds for France vs Spain?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: France 4% | Draw 12% | Spain 84%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Home France

4% Win
Prob

12% Draw

Away Spain

84% Win
Prob

Semifinal

France vs Spain

◯Tue 14 Jul 2026◯3:00 AM SGT · Kickoff◯AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Market Consensus

France Win 4%

Draw 12%

Spain Win 84%

Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	FRANCE	Draw	SPAIN
Betfair Exchange sharp	3%	10%	87%
Smarkets sharp	3%	12%	85%
Matchbook sharp	2%	10%	87%
Pinnacle	14%	27%	59%
DraftKings	3%	12%	85%
FanDuel	4%	12%	84%
Wtd. Average	4%	12%	84%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live

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Correct Score

0–2

20%

0–3

19%

0–4

13%

0–1

12%

1–2

10%

1–3

10%

1–1

0–5

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.

What does the crowd think?