Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FULHAM
Draw
CHELSEA
Betfair Exchange sharp
32%
26%
42%
Smarkets sharp
31%
26%
44%
Pinnacle
32%
26%
42%
DraftKings
32%
26%
42%
FanDuel
31%
25%
44%
BetMGM
31%
26%
42%
Wtd. Average
31%
26%
43%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
16%
2–2
15%
1–2
14%
2–1
14%
2–3
10%
3–2
10%
1–3
10%
3–1
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.