Weighted consensus across 6 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FC
Draw
FC
Pinnacle
51%
26%
23%
DraftKings
51%
27%
22%
BetMGM
51%
27%
22%
William Hill
49%
28%
23%
Wtd. Average
51%
27%
23%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 6 books · live
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Correct Score
2–1
17%
1–1
16%
3–1
14%
2–0
13%
2–2
11%
3–0
11%
3–2
9%
1–2
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.