Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
GENOA
Draw
NAPOLI
Betfair Exchange sharp
21%
29%
50%
Smarkets sharp
20%
29%
51%
Pinnacle
20%
30%
50%
DraftKings
20%
30%
50%
FanDuel
21%
28%
51%
BetMGM
21%
28%
51%
Wtd. Average
21%
29%
50%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
20%
1–2
16%
0–2
12%
2–1
11%
2–2
10%
0–0
10%
0–1
10%
1–3
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.