Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FC
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
69%
19%
13%
Matchbook sharp
68%
19%
13%
Pinnacle
68%
19%
13%
DraftKings
66%
19%
14%
FanDuel
69%
18%
13%
William Hill
67%
20%
13%
Wtd. Average
68%
19%
13%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
16%
2–1
14%
4–1
14%
3–0
13%
2–0
12%
4–0
11%
1–1
10%
3–2
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.