Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
CITY
Draw
UNITED
Betfair Exchange sharp
13%
21%
66%
Smarkets sharp
14%
21%
64%
Pinnacle
14%
22%
65%
DraftKings
14%
22%
64%
FanDuel
13%
21%
66%
BetMGM
14%
21%
64%
Wtd. Average
14%
21%
65%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
1–2
17%
1–1
16%
1–3
14%
0–2
13%
2–2
11%
0–3
11%
2–3
9%
1–4
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.