Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
UNITED
Draw
MOTORS
Smarkets sharp
29%
31%
40%
Pinnacle
30%
30%
40%
DraftKings
30%
30%
40%
BetMGM
30%
29%
41%
William Hill
30%
30%
39%
Wtd. Average
30%
30%
40%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
22%
2–1
14%
1–2
14%
2–2
11%
0–0
11%
2–0
9%
0–2
9%
1–0
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.