Weighted consensus across 6 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
CF
Draw
FIRE
Smarkets sharp
49%
22%
29%
FanDuel
51%
21%
28%
BetMGM
51%
22%
27%
William Hill
49%
23%
28%
Wtd. Average
50%
22%
28%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 6 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
15%
3–2
14%
2–1
14%
2–2
14%
4–1
11%
4–2
11%
1–1
11%
3–3
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.