Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
MILAN
Draw
MONZA
Betfair Exchange sharp
79%
15%
6%
Smarkets sharp
75%
17%
9%
Pinnacle
77%
14%
8%
DraftKings
76%
15%
9%
FanDuel
77%
15%
8%
BetMGM
77%
15%
8%
Wtd. Average
77%
15%
7%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
3–0
16%
4–0
14%
3–1
14%
2–0
13%
4–1
13%
2–1
11%
5–0
10%
5–1
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.