Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
GALAXY
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
33%
25%
42%
Smarkets sharp
33%
25%
42%
Matchbook sharp
33%
25%
42%
Pinnacle
32%
25%
42%
DraftKings
32%
26%
42%
FanDuel
34%
25%
42%
Wtd. Average
33%
25%
42%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live
Loading form…
Correct Score
1–1
15%
2–2
15%
2–1
14%
1–2
14%
3–2
11%
3–1
11%
2–3
10%
1–3
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.