Weighted consensus across 5 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
HAVRE
Draw
MONACO
Betfair Exchange sharp
26%
30%
44%
Smarkets sharp
28%
24%
48%
Pinnacle
29%
24%
47%
DraftKings
29%
24%
47%
FanDuel
28%
24%
48%
Wtd. Average
27%
27%
46%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 5 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
20%
1–2
16%
2–1
14%
2–2
13%
1–3
10%
0–2
9%
0–0
8%
2–3
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.