Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FC
Draw
BREST
Betfair Exchange sharp
39%
27%
35%
Smarkets sharp
38%
27%
35%
Pinnacle
38%
27%
34%
DraftKings
38%
28%
34%
FanDuel
38%
26%
35%
BetMGM
38%
27%
35%
Wtd. Average
38%
27%
35%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
17%
2–1
16%
2–2
14%
1–2
13%
3–1
12%
3–2
10%
2–0
9%
2–3
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.