Weighted consensus across 6 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
MARSEILL
Draw
STRASBOU
Betfair Exchange sharp
57%
22%
21%
Smarkets sharp
56%
24%
20%
Pinnacle
58%
22%
20%
FanDuel
59%
21%
20%
BetMGM
56%
22%
22%
Wtd. Average
57%
22%
21%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 6 books · live
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Correct Score
2–1
16%
3–1
16%
1–1
12%
2–2
12%
3–2
12%
4–1
12%
2–0
10%
3–0
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.