Who is the favourite in Mexico vs Ecuador?

Betting exchange markets make Mexico the 43% favourite to win Mexico vs Ecuador. Mexico win probability is 43%, Draw is 33%, Ecuador win is 24%.

What are the odds for Mexico vs Ecuador?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: Mexico 43% | Draw 33% | Ecuador 24%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Home Mexico

43% Win
Prob

33% Draw

Away Ecuador

24% Win
Prob

Round of 32

Mexico vs Ecuador

◯Wed 01 Jul 2026◯9:00 AM SGT · Kickoff◯Estadio Banorte, Mexico City

What does the crowd think?

Market Consensus

Mexico Win 43%

Draw 33%

Ecuador Win 24%

Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	MEXICO	Draw	ECUADOR
Betfair Exchange sharp	43%	33%	24%
Smarkets sharp	43%	33%	24%
Matchbook sharp	43%	33%	24%
Pinnacle	43%	33%	24%
DraftKings	43%	33%	25%
FanDuel	43%	33%	24%
Wtd. Average	43%	33%	24%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live

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Correct Score

1–1

20%

2–0

14%

2–1

14%

1–0

14%

0–0

13%

1–2

3–0

3–1

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.