Who is the favourite in Mexico vs England?

Betting exchange markets make England the 39% favourite to win Mexico vs England. Mexico win probability is 31%, Draw is 30%, England win is 39%.

What are the odds for Mexico vs England?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: Mexico 31% | Draw 30% | England 39%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Home Mexico

31% Win
Prob

30% Draw

Away England

39% Win
Prob

Round of 16

Mexico vs England

◯Mon 06 Jul 2026◯8:00 AM SGT · Kickoff◯Estadio Banorte, Mexico City

Market Consensus

Mexico Win 31%

Draw 30%

England Win 39%

Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	MEXICO	Draw	ENGLAND
Betfair Exchange sharp	31%	30%	39%
Smarkets sharp	31%	30%	39%
Matchbook sharp	31%	30%	39%
Pinnacle	31%	30%	40%
DraftKings	31%	30%	39%
FanDuel	31%	30%	38%
Wtd. Average	31%	30%	39%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live

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Correct Score

1–1

21%

2–1

15%

1–2

15%

2–2

13%

0–0

10%

2–0

0–2

3–1

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.

What does the crowd think?