Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
SC
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
66%
20%
14%
Smarkets sharp
66%
21%
14%
Matchbook sharp
66%
21%
13%
Pinnacle
64%
21%
16%
DraftKings
64%
21%
15%
FanDuel
66%
19%
15%
Wtd. Average
65%
21%
14%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
16%
2–1
15%
3–0
13%
2–0
13%
4–1
12%
1–1
11%
4–0
10%
3–2
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.