Weighted consensus across 6 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
REVOLUTI
Draw
FC
Smarkets sharp
53%
26%
21%
FanDuel
55%
24%
21%
BetMGM
54%
25%
21%
William Hill
52%
26%
22%
Wtd. Average
53%
25%
21%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 6 books · live
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Correct Score
2–1
17%
1–1
15%
3–1
14%
2–0
13%
2–2
11%
3–0
11%
3–2
10%
4–1
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.