Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
NICE
Draw
LORIENT
Betfair Exchange sharp
43%
27%
30%
Smarkets sharp
43%
26%
30%
Pinnacle
43%
27%
30%
DraftKings
43%
27%
30%
FanDuel
44%
26%
30%
BetMGM
43%
26%
31%
Wtd. Average
43%
27%
30%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
Loading form…
Correct Score
1–1
17%
2–1
17%
2–2
14%
3–1
13%
1–2
12%
3–2
11%
2–0
10%
3–0
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.