Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FOREST
Draw
UNITED
Betfair Exchange sharp
43%
28%
29%
Smarkets sharp
42%
27%
31%
Pinnacle
42%
29%
29%
DraftKings
42%
28%
30%
FanDuel
43%
26%
31%
BetMGM
42%
27%
31%
Wtd. Average
42%
28%
30%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
18%
2–1
17%
2–2
13%
3–1
12%
1–2
12%
2–0
11%
3–2
10%
3–0
8%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.