Weighted consensus across 2 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
GERMAIN
Draw
RENNES
Pinnacle
67%
18%
15%
DraftKings
67%
18%
16%
Wtd. Average
67%
18%
15%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 2 books · live
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Correct Score
3–1
16%
4–1
15%
2–1
13%
3–2
12%
4–2
12%
5–1
11%
3–0
10%
2–2
10%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.