Weighted consensus across 7 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
PARMA
Draw
CAGLIARI
Betfair Exchange sharp
35%
32%
33%
Smarkets sharp
36%
30%
33%
Pinnacle
36%
31%
33%
DraftKings
36%
31%
33%
FanDuel
36%
30%
34%
BetMGM
37%
30%
33%
Wtd. Average
36%
31%
33%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 7 books · live
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Correct Score
1–1
21%
2–1
16%
1–2
12%
2–2
11%
2–0
11%
0–0
10%
3–1
10%
1–0
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.