Who is the favourite in Portugal vs Spain?

Betting exchange markets make Spain the 50% favourite to win Portugal vs Spain. Portugal win probability is 23%, Draw is 26%, Spain win is 50%.

What are the odds for Portugal vs Spain?

Exchange-weighted market consensus: Portugal 23% | Draw 26% | Spain 50%. Data sourced from Betfair Exchange, Smarkets, Pinnacle and other bookmakers, with sharp books weighted up to 25x more than soft retail books.

Home Portugal

23% Win
Prob

26% Draw

Away Spain

50% Win
Prob

Round of 16

Portugal vs Spain

◯Mon 06 Jul 2026◯3:00 AM SGT · Kickoff◯AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Market Consensus

Portugal Win 23%

Draw 26%

Spain Win 50%

Weighted consensus across 10 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.

By source

Source	PORTUGAL	Draw	SPAIN
Betfair Exchange sharp	23%	26%	51%
Smarkets sharp	23%	26%	51%
Matchbook sharp	23%	26%	51%
Pinnacle	24%	26%	50%
DraftKings	24%	26%	50%
FanDuel	23%	26%	51%
Wtd. Average	23%	26%	51%

↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 10 books · live

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Correct Score

1–1

20%

1–2

16%

2–1

13%

2–2

13%

1–3

11%

0–2

11%

2–3

0–0

Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.

What does the crowd think?