Weighted consensus across 8 bookmakers — betting exchanges & sharp books weighted up to 25× more than soft retail books. Vig removed per source before averaging.
By source
Source
FC
Draw
FC
Betfair Exchange sharp
22%
24%
54%
Matchbook sharp
22%
24%
54%
Pinnacle
23%
24%
54%
DraftKings
23%
24%
53%
FanDuel
22%
24%
54%
William Hill
23%
25%
52%
Wtd. Average
22%
24%
54%
↻ Exchange-weighted consensus · 8 books · live
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Correct Score
1–2
16%
1–1
16%
2–2
14%
1–3
13%
2–1
12%
2–3
12%
3–2
9%
0–2
9%
Poisson model fitted to exchange-weighted 1X2 probabilities. WC2026 goal-rate & Dixon-Coles draw correction applied.